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# Paramount's Sonic 3 tracking to open no. 1 at the domestic box office
- URL: https://news.tailschannel.com/paramounts-sonic-3-tracking-to-open-no-1-at-the-domestic-box-office-2/
- Published: 2024-11-29T20:23:00.000Z
- Updated: 2025-01-17T20:25:53.000Z
- Description: The real winner this holiday season may be the movie industry itself.
- Author: Tails' Channel
- Tags: Movie, Numbers Never Lie, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, #news

Paramount's *Sonic the Hedgehog 3* and Disney's *Mufasa: The Lion King* are set for a tight box office race this holiday season, with [early tracking](https://deadline.com/2024/11/sonic-the-hedgehog-3-mufasa-box-office-projection-1236188815/?ref=news.tailschannel.com) giving Sonic a slight edge.

**Why it matters**: *Sonic 3* is benefiting from a surge in buzz after its second trailer, while Disney plans to ramp up *Mufasa*'s marketing campaign, leveraging early ticket sales.

- Per Deadline, both are tracking ahead of last year's holiday hits, *Wonka* (at $39 million) and *Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom* (at $27.6 million).

**By the numbers:** Sonic 3 is projected to open at or above $55 million, ahead of Mufasa’s estimated $50 million.

- First-choice polling favours *Sonic 3* (11%) over *Mufasa* (7%), but *Mufasa* leads in overall audience interest, 50% to 47%.
- *Sonic 3*'s tracking is slightly below its predecessors (The 2020 film opened at $58 million, while 2022 opened at $72.1 million).

**What to watch:** Family films often see strong holiday legs, with Christmas-week releases sometimes multiplying their opening weekend by five times.

- The ultimate box office winner may not be decided until well after 25 December.